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By letting prices rise, it may be worthwhile for factories that manufacture a similar product, or have manufactured masks in the past to retool back to mask production.

While it may be too late for this immediate epidemic, it also incentivizes middlemen to warehouse goods like masks which will help for the next epidemic.



This may or may not be good economics, but it's terrible health policy. If the goal was stopping the spread of COVID19 and masks were an effective preventative measure you would want them to be as cheap as possible to encourage use. This is a scenario where the magic hand of the market will get people killed.


> This may or may not be good economics, but it's terrible health policy. If the goal was stopping the spread of COVID19 and masks were an effective preventative measure you would want them to be as cheap as possible to encourage use.

"Health policy" has no exemption from economics. The way you get enough masks during high demand is by someone stockpiling them. If you want them to be cheap, someone has to stockpile even more of them. That could be the government, but only if they thought to do it ahead of time.

If they didn't, now you've got a market problem that pricing is the best way to address -- prohibiting price from rising due to demand only causes misallocation, because people who have more masks than they need have a reduced incentive to sell them to the people who need them. The first guy in the store buys fifty when he only needed one because he wanted to be sure to have enough, but then the store runs out before everyone has one and there are fifty unused masks in the one guy's basement.

Charging more is how you get him to not buy more than he needed.


That's one way. Another way is for the government to declare and emergency and order production, and to set rules about distribution like limiting people to one box at a time or whatever. Markets are typically closer to economic optimality over the longer run but not in the short term, and furthermore optimality is not always that important for many commodities that can be stockpiled against future emergencies.

You are talking about economics like a mathematical theorem when you know full well that economic behavior is an emergent social phenomenon and that people are not pure economic automata. This is disingenuous at best and dangerous at worst.


> Another way is for the government to declare and emergency and order production

Which generally doesn't have to be ordered, because producers are already inclined to produce more during high demand.

You might also want to worry about the business consequences of ordering suppliers of critical products to spend money increasing capacity on an emergency basis without increasing their sales price. With no way to recover their now-higher costs, what happens when you drive them out of business and then need them again next time?

> and to set rules about distribution like limiting people to one box at a time or whatever

Which fails because some people have a legitimate need to buy in quantity, but it's an administrative nightmare to determine exactly who those people are and each failure to correctly identify results in a large quantity of items not going to people who legitimately need them.

It also violates the social distancing principle. Instead of sending one person from an office to the store to buy a box for each person from the office to take home, now every employee has to individually visit the store and create a new opportunity to transmit or receive an infection with other patrons or staff there.

> Markets are typically closer to economic optimality over the longer run but not in the short term,

There is no principle that markets are more optimal in the long run than the short run. Market failures exist, but they exist where they exist and not where they don't.

A huge demand spike isn't a market failure. The higher prices cause markets to do exactly what you want in that context -- increase production and reduce hoarding.

> and furthermore optimality is not always that important for many commodities that can be stockpiled against future emergencies.

This only works if they actually were stockpiled ahead of time, in which case there wouldn't be such a supply shortage that prices would rise to undesirable levels.


It doesn't really seem worth engaging further with pseudo arguments like 'Market failures exist, but they exist where they exist and not where they don't.'


Yeah, right, government intervention and totalitarian control is the solution to all social problems... I very much prefer the free market solution of rising prices.


I don’t.

Even if the masks were actually being used properly, people who need masks the most after the sick, are the people we pay the lowest, retail workers, food service, people who come in contact with extreme numbers of people on a daily basis.

Well paid tech employees can work from home, take 2 weeks of sick days and continue to make thousands a week.

These people will come into work even if they’re anything short of dying because they’re more likely to live paycheck to paycheck when we don’t pay them enough, and the free market has decided not to give them sick benefits that we all benefit from.

The free market is actually externalizing the issue to all of at this point. Don’t give workers enough sick days and keep all that profit, but then when the workers end up spreading the virus as a result of their boneheaded policies, the public will suffer, and the government will pay dearly.


Free market under true emergency situations won't work. As we see with masks right now and we are nowhere near a true global crisis. Why do you think governments went to rationing during war time?


>Why do you think governments went to rationing during war time?

I doubt it was to help individual citizens and families survive a crisis.


That was exactly the reason, if you don't do rationing in extreme events, people start to mass panic buy everything and then you would have people starving.

There's absolutely no "free market" anymore during panic.


I believe you, but is there a good example of a time when this happened and a bunch of people died of starvation? (I assume there’d be plenty of them, since rationing isn’t a very obvious idea.)


> That was exactly the reason, if you don't do rationing in extreme events, people start to mass panic buy everything

Which is what pricing is for. If people start hoarding then the price goes up and makes hoarding much more expensive. Not only that, it gives the people with a stockpile a financial incentive to put it on eBay and thereby make it available for distribution to other people. Unless they're prohibited from doing so, in which case they carry on hoarding.


That was exactly the reason. To not let the non-fighting part of the population die and keep the army in fighting shape.


It should be obvious that a better solution is some mix of the two, and that mix will change from time to time and under different circumstances.


You know what would the "middle ground" solution be? Government buying masks at those spike prices to give them away for free to people who need them. This way you get all the benefits: everyone gets a mask when they need one and producers get incentive to increase supply.

Now an interesting plot twist: Those masks not only do not protect against coronavirus (because the virus is too small, and can get through), they actually increase the risk of infection (because they serve as virus incubators, especially when they become wet)


>The first guy in the store buys fifty when he only needed one because he wanted to be sure to have enough, but then the store runs out before everyone has one and there are fifty unused masks in the one guy's basement.

Maybe he won't give anything up because price might keep going up and whenever he needs the masks they will be so costly he cannot afford them. Or maybe the price rise will give some party an incentive to stockpile masks because making money is a clear incentive instead of a more nebulous "avoid a health crisis".


Yup. Compare with other assets: people don't sell when prices go up. Last thing we need now is turning PPE into an investment vehicle.


People only don't sell things when the prices go up if they expect them to go up even more. That doesn't apply to temporary shortages at all. Either the demand will fall off over time or manufacturing will catch up to the demand, either of which causes the prices to decrease over time. Anybody who wants to profit from a shortage has to do it while there is still a shortage.


There is no end of this shortage in sight. In fact, the shortages in Europe are only about to start - the last batch of pre-lockdown container ships from China arrived to Europe earlier this week.


It is physically possible to manufacture things outside of China. Which is why higher prices are necessary -- it costs more to do that, but we want it to happen so that the supply increases.

The lead time to start manufacturing simple products like masks isn't that long. That puts a time limit on the high prices -- even if the demand stays high, supply catches up to it. (Compare this to, say, housing where increasing supply is constrained by zoning which prevents supply from increasing in response to demand.)


Tangent: note that masks are useless if you're buying just a few. They're disposable. No point in buying less than a box. And at current prices, few people could afford that.


Sounds like a public education problem (ie. people thinking that masks are the silver bullet).


The magic hand of the market will get poor people killed. That's what the magic hand does. If wealthy British are willing and able to pay more for Irish agricultural products that Irish peasants, the invisible hand does not intervene to prevent the famine/genocide. It just ensures Irish agricultural products fetch the highest profit in the open market. A large percentage of the population of Ireland dying as the result is none of the concern of the hand as long as profits are made in the process.


Ah yes, the famine caused by having to grow cash crops to pay rent to a foreign empire, leading to overdependence on a single food crop that provided several times the calories/acre/year of anything else. Definitely the magic hand's fault.


I am no expert on the subject, so please bear with me if I am missing something. But it looks like back then, people really believed the invisible hand will take care of things, and it didn't, and I would be surprised if it does in our case.

From Wikipedia:

The new Whig administration, influenced by the doctrine of laissez-faire,[11] believed that the market would provide the food needed, and they refused to intervene against food exports to England, then halted the previous government's food and relief works, leaving many hundreds of thousands of people without any work, money, or food.

Charles Trevelyan, who was in charge of the administration of government relief, limited the Government's food aid programme because of a firm belief in laissez-faire.[98]


The Whigs used the laissez-faire argument when they did not really have laissez-faire. Britain had high tariffs on corn and other grains that could have allowed Ireland and Britain to import food other than potatoes. Navigation laws also required only British ships to bring goods to British ports, which further reduced any import of food.

One year later, the British government did intervene by building workhouses to help house the poor tenant farmers. However this made the situation worse because instead of the British government funding the houses, they taxed the Irish landowners triggering mass evictions of the poor tenant farmers.


Consider for a second that you’re comparing an imaginary supposition (the magic hand) by a philosopher of the British Empire with the historical reality of that empire, and evaluate the circumstances again.


Yep, because the magic hand didn't do anything when the one wonder crop didn't grow anymore. It quite literally just let people die. The great irish famine is a fact.




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