I was under the impression the issue with 10nm is frequency, which lead to the rocket lake backport. Unfortunately it seems that the 10nm node's efficiency point is lower on the frequency curve. The reviewed ice lake processor was 300mhz lower then the previous generation (though with much higher core count), despite higher power draw and the process node shrink.
In laptop processors they can easily show efficiency gains from the 10nm process and IPC improvement, It appears most laptop processors end up running a power envelope lower then the ideal performance per watt efficiency. Server Processors with higher core counts means you can run more workloads per server, again providing efficiency gains. However desktop / gaming tends to be smaller core count + higher frequency with little concern of efficiency outside of quality of life factors (i.e. don't make me use a 1KW chiller). Intel has been pushing 5ghz processor frequency for years, and rocket lake continues that push (5.3ghz boost), when they drop frequency to move to 10nm, its hard to see an IPC improvement that is able to paper over that.
However alder lake CPUs will have a thread count advantage, so at least with 24 threads it should be able to show generational improvement over the current 8c/16 rocket lake parts. That will allow them to at least argue their value with select benchmarks and intel only features. Those 8 efficiency cores will likely be a BIG win on laptop, but on desktop I doubt they will compare favourably to the full fat cores on a current Ryzen 5900x (i.e. a currently available 24 core processor).
Intel is going to have at least 1 more BAD mainstream desktop generation before they can truely compete on the mainstream high end, however there is a chance they have something like a HEDT part that would allow them to at least save face. That being said, given a choice, Intel will give up desktop market share for the faster growing laptop and server markets.
In laptop processors they can easily show efficiency gains from the 10nm process and IPC improvement, It appears most laptop processors end up running a power envelope lower then the ideal performance per watt efficiency. Server Processors with higher core counts means you can run more workloads per server, again providing efficiency gains. However desktop / gaming tends to be smaller core count + higher frequency with little concern of efficiency outside of quality of life factors (i.e. don't make me use a 1KW chiller). Intel has been pushing 5ghz processor frequency for years, and rocket lake continues that push (5.3ghz boost), when they drop frequency to move to 10nm, its hard to see an IPC improvement that is able to paper over that.
However alder lake CPUs will have a thread count advantage, so at least with 24 threads it should be able to show generational improvement over the current 8c/16 rocket lake parts. That will allow them to at least argue their value with select benchmarks and intel only features. Those 8 efficiency cores will likely be a BIG win on laptop, but on desktop I doubt they will compare favourably to the full fat cores on a current Ryzen 5900x (i.e. a currently available 24 core processor).
Intel is going to have at least 1 more BAD mainstream desktop generation before they can truely compete on the mainstream high end, however there is a chance they have something like a HEDT part that would allow them to at least save face. That being said, given a choice, Intel will give up desktop market share for the faster growing laptop and server markets.