Filmmaking devices have gotten cheaper consistently over the last ~50 years. I don’t know about you, but I think some pretty good movies have come out since 1970, especially by directors working on very low budgets.
> I don’t know about you, but I think some pretty good movies have come out since 1970, especially by directors working on very low budgets.
On the whole, I think the average quality of cinematography in theater or wide-streaming releases has decreased.
Which isn't disagreement with your point, as I think it says more about audience tastes and gatekeeping filters than technology.
When film equipment was expensive and the bare minimum for creating a film was high, studios had a much tighter filter on who they'd fund to create a film. Consequently, the level of craft was higher.
What needs to be said here is that average quality is more or less irrelevant. If the amount of high quality movies increases (it did) and the discoverability doesn't suffer (it didn't too much), then that's a plus.
The thing that has tanked the quality of theatrical films on average isn't improved technology, it's the increasing commodification of art, risk aversion of business and the modern reliance on data to drive business decisions. That's why we have basically nothing but sequels, reboots and formulaic drivel coming out of the major studios.
“It’s too early to make predictions. Here’s my prediction”
^^^ I think this is what the response meant. I noticed it too, you castigated folks for making predictions then led into your own :-) a real AI wouldn’t do that!
An Avid nonlinear video editing station used to cost $100K. Nowadays you can do the same with software costing $300 on the computer you already have. You can get a mirrorless video camera that blows away the Sony CineAlta ones George Lucas used to shoot the Star Wars prequels for under a grand. This has removed a huge chunk of production costs and make indie film-making much more viable. The only limits are your imagination and the salaries of the actors and camera crew.
AI-generated animation is already being used by industry giants like Toei, and will likely be the first application to hit the screens.
AI creation tools make it easier to make stuff. This process will result in a lot of junk, but it will also result in some super creative people making art they otherwise couldn’t.
The same process happened with filmmaking. Fifty or sixty years ago, it was too expensive for anyone other than large corporations.
You could even say the same thing for writing itself; a thousand years ago, paper was too expensive for the average person and most people couldn’t afford to buy books and become literate. Today, writing paper is functionally free.
And it's not just creation of art from "scratch", I bet we will soon see AI being able to take painted animation frame, sketch of next and extrapolate next frame from it, and making whole process so much cheaper
People really love to make predictions about technologies way too early. It’s been a year or two, tops, since this stuff has gone mainstream.
Prediction:
I very much doubt that the consumer ecosystem will remain the same while content undergoes an AI-powered paradigm shift. We will most likely see a growth of curated sites that help weed out the nonsense, as has been typical for most new developments.
Is it not too early to make predictions?